Перегляд за Автор "Tetiana Kulinich"

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    Assessment of public welfare in Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and economy digitalization
    (Суми: LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives”, 2021-03-18) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Iaroslav Petrunenko; Viktoriia Baidala; Viktoriia Myronchuk; Tetiana Kulinich
    With the emergence of the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, a process of transformation of the modern economic system took place, which requires new approaches to assessing economic processes. One of such processes is the assessment of public welfare. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to assessing the level of public welfare of the population of Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and economy digitalization. To solve this problem, the methods of artificial intelligence, in particular the method of fuzzy sets theory, which allows using the incomplete information and making high-quality forecast calculations, are used. The factors influencing the level of public welfare during the COVID-19 pandemic have been identified. These are the following factors: gross domestic product, poverty rate, welfare index, human development index, subsistence level, and indicators that characterize the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e. the total number of COVID-19 cases, the total number of deaths from COVID-19, and the total number of vaccinations from COVID-19 in Ukraine). Using fuzzy sets theory, an economic-mathematical model for assessing the level of public welfare in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine was built. Two-dimensional dependences of the level of public welfare of Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic on indicators such as gross domestic product, subsistence level, and the total number of cases of COVID-19 in Ukraine were obtained. The results of the study established that the level of public welfare in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 0-100 scale is predicted to be as follows points: 2021 – 17, 2022 – 23, 2023 – 27, 2024 – 19, 2025 – 35 and will not meet international standards.
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    Forecasting the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of War and European integration
    (Болгарія: Сільськогосподарська академія, 2023) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Tetiana Kulinich; Hennadii Mazur; Natalia Varshavska; Mariia Lushchyk; Illya Khadzhynov; Volodymyr Kozlovskyi
    The war in Ukraine, since 24 February 2022, the processes of integration of Ukraine into the European Union in June 2022, the presence of powerful competitors in the European markets encourage the formation of a set of measures with the distinction of tools to ensure the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of the state. The necessity of ensuring the competitiveness of Ukraine’s agrarian sector on the basis of determining the competitive advantages dictate the urgency of scientific search for new methods, forms, tools for its enhancement, which will further promote the market relations in Ukraine and will have a direct impact on the well-being of the population. The aim of the work is to develop an innovative economic-mathematical model for assessing and fore-casting the level of competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine, based on fuzzy sets in the conditions of war and European integration. The object of the research is the process of ensuring the competitiveness of the Ukrainian agrarian sector. The subject of the research is methodological aspects of economic and mathematical modeling of the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of war and European integration. The methodology of the study is based on the principles and mathematical provisions of fuzzy sets, which allows to use both qualitative and quantitative indicators of influence on the process under study. As a result of the research, based on fuzzy set theory, which allows taking into account both quantitative and qualitative factors of influence on the level of competitiveness, an innovative economic-mathematical model of valuation and forecasting of the level of competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine has been developed. The classification of factors influencing the level of agrarian sector competitiveness has been formed. The forecast (before the war and after the war), until 2026, of the level of competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine has been made, which will allow formulating a strategy of development of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of war and European integration.
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    Документ
    Relationship between net Relationship between net migration and economic tion and economic development of European opment of European countries: Empirical conclusions
    (Суми: ТОВ «Перспективи бізнесу», 2024-03-18) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Tetiana Kulinich; Ihor Vechirko; Ruslan Lavrov; Ivan Zayukov; Hennadii Mazur
    The study aims to investigate the relationships between the volume of net migration and the economic development of individual European countries, which will make it possible to forecast the level of GDP and strengthen their migration policy. Correlation-regression analysis was used based on statistical data from Eurostat and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period 2014−2021 for selected European countries (the EU-27 member states, Switzerland, and Ukraine). The correlation-regression analysis showed a relationship between the volume of net migration and the level of GDP. The linear correlation equations forecasted the value of the GDP level depending on the influence of a single factor – the volume of net migration. The attention is focused on the importance of migration, which ensures economic growth for Poland. It is attractive due to a simpler mechanism for moving immigrants than in other EU-27 countries, ease of language learning and easier adaptation, territorial proximity, and a higher standard of living compared to neighboring countries that were part of the Soviet Union. Thus, an increase in net migration to Poland by 1% will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 1.43 million euros. Due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, net migration from Ukraine to Poland has increased significantly, potentially increasing Poland’s GDP in 2023 by 0.08% or 529.54 million euros
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    The Influence of the World Grain Market on Prevalence of Mankind’s Undernourishment in the Times of War on the Ukraine
    (Польща: Люблінський технологічний університет, 2024) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Allam Yousuf; Vira Butenko; Tetiana Kulinich; Olena Bohdaniuk; Liudmyla Nikolenko; Ruslan Lavrov
    The world cereal production and supply as well as their trade, stock and losses are important indicators of the world market of cereals. They play a huge role in ensuring food security. The aim of this research is to identify the relation of the indicators of the world grain crops market (production, supply, losses, trade, stocks) and the level of malnutrition Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) among the world's population. Based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), a correlation-regression analysis was conducted between indicators of the global grain crops market, in particular: the wheat market, the fodder market of grain crops, the rice market and PoU of the world population for the period 2013/14 – 2020/2021 marketing years. It has been proven that there is a close, statistically reliable relationship between the above mentioned indicators, except for grain stocks and POU. The analysis of the world cereal market showed that among the indicators characterizing its conditions, the indicator trade in grain crops (r = 0.851; D = 0.724; F = 3.968, (F > F t ); z = 1.26; rL = 0.37; rU = 0.97) has the highest level of correlation. It was found that with an increase in the volume of world cereal trade by 1 million tons, the PoU level will increase by 0.018%. A review of literary sources proves that the problem of ensuring food security, in particular with regard to reducing the level of starvation and malnutrition, cannot be solved only by fighting climate change, overcoming socio-economic and military problems, fighting pandemics, etc. Its solution to a large extent depends on fair, uniform export and import of food products, as evidenced by the calculations. A separate direction for solving the problem of the spread of malnutrition is the elimination of the policy of highly developed countries regarding the application of individual sanctions against countries with high PoU values, in particular, the Central African Republic, Madagascar, Haiti, Afghanistan, Chad, Congo, Lesotho, Liberia, Mozambique, etc.