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DETERMINATION OF THE RISK-FREE RATE OF RETURN ON AN INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY BASED ON THE FRACTAL MARKETS HYPOTHESIS
(Варшава: УНІВЕРСИТЕТ WSB, 2020) Andrii KozlovskyI; Daria Bilenko; Serhii Kozlovskyi; Ruslan Lavrov; Oleh Skydan; Natalya Ivanyuta
In determining the economic efficiency of an investment project, the rationale and choice of the discount rate is the most difficult step. The methods of investment assessment are built on the rate of return used to discount future cash flows back to their present value. To increase the accuracy of calculations and reduce the subjective assessments of experts, statistical methods are used. The market process is known to be stochastic. Therefore, investors know that the application of statistical methods is not practical, and thus prefer to use their ntuition and professional experience. The alternative group of methods such as the Fractal Markets Hypothesis is not widely used because it is difficult to carry out calculations according to the proposed formulas in practice. In this paper, the aim is to propose a method for determining the risk-free rate of return on an investment project based on the Fractal Markets Hypothesis for identifying long-term dependence and assessing the contribution to the total result of changes in inflation. The objective of the study is the determination of the risk-free rate of return on an investment project. The real risk-free rate is calculated as the existing inflation rate. The result of this paper is the definition of inflation boundaries for Poland, Ukraine and Russia, which may be used for determining the risk-free rate of return on an investment project.
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Determinants of COVID-19 Death Rate in Europe: Empirical Analysis
(Vinnytsia: Institute of Feed and Agriculture of Podillya National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, 2021) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Daria Bilenko; Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi; Serhii Vitvitskyi; Olha Bondarenko; Oleksandr Korniichuk
At the end of 2019, the new virus called Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread widely from China all over the world (including Europe). Most countries in Europe at the beginning of 2020 have been quarantined. The aim of the work is to develop the system dynamics model for assessing the impact of the different factors on the COVID19 death rate in Europe. There were tested three hypotheses about factors of reducing the COVID-19 death rate with the help of linear regression analysis. The density of the population of European countries doesn’t affect the COVID-19 death rate. Also, COVID-19 death rate does not drastically affect mortality statistics. But the level of country’s economic development is a factor of COVID-19 death rate because in high developed countries the pandemic death rate is lower, regardless of the mechanisms of the spread of the disease and its impact on human health.
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Assessment of public welfare in Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and economy digitalization
(Суми: LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives”, 2021-03-18) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Iaroslav Petrunenko; Viktoriia Baidala; Viktoriia Myronchuk; Tetiana Kulinich
With the emergence of the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, a process of transformation of the modern economic system took place, which requires new approaches to assessing economic processes. One of such processes is the assessment of public welfare. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to assessing the level of public welfare of the population of Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and economy digitalization. To solve this problem, the methods of artificial intelligence, in particular the method of fuzzy sets theory, which allows using the incomplete information and making high-quality forecast calculations, are used. The factors influencing the level of public welfare during the COVID-19 pandemic have been identified. These are the following factors: gross domestic product, poverty rate, welfare index, human development index, subsistence level, and indicators that characterize the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e. the total number of COVID-19 cases, the total number of deaths from COVID-19, and the total number of vaccinations from COVID-19 in Ukraine). Using fuzzy sets theory, an economic-mathematical model for assessing the level of public welfare in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine was built. Two-dimensional dependences of the level of public welfare of Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic on indicators such as gross domestic product, subsistence level, and the total number of cases of COVID-19 in Ukraine were obtained. The results of the study established that the level of public welfare in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 0-100 scale is predicted to be as follows points: 2021 – 17, 2022 – 23, 2023 – 27, 2024 – 19, 2025 – 35 and will not meet international standards.
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Comparison and Assessment of Factors Affecting the COVID-19 Vaccination in European Countries
(Kyiv: PHEI European University, 2021) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Daria Bilenko; Mykhailo Kuzheliev; Natalya Ivanyuta; Vira Butenko; Ruslan Lavrov
The Covid-19 spread has become a major challenge for humanity in the last decade. It was believed that the Covid19 vaccine development would have to end the pandemic. On the contrary, society has faced a new challenge which is that there are both countries that cannot afford to purchase the Covid-19 vaccine and inhabitants who do not trust new vaccine. Without adequate Covid-19 vaccination level, the global pandemic is not going to end. The object of this study is factors affecting the vaccination Covid-19 in European countries. The subject of the study is the statistical analysis methods to compare and assess of factors affecting the vaccination Covid-19 in European countries. The aim of the study is to find out which concerns about vaccination are more important and have an impact on the Covid-19 vaccination level in European countries. It is examined six factors; three of them relate to the government vaccine administration, the other three are about a public opinion on Covid-19 vaccination. The analysis is carried out in 22 European countries. The result of the study allows to state that public opinions factors are more important in pandemic and have more impact on the vaccination rate.
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Comparative Assessment of the Different Cryptocurrencies Investment Efficiency on the Different Time Periods
(Подгориця: ELIT – Економічна лабораторія досліджень перехідного періоду, 2021-12-15) SERHII KOZLOVSKY; DARIA BILENKO; NATALYA IVANYUTA; OLESIA TOMCHUK; NATALIIA PRYKAZIUK; OKSANA LOBOVA
Cryptocurrency has appeared recently but become important part of the global financial sector. Some experts predict that cryptocurrency has changed the world forever because of its utility to transfer payments across borders with little cost or delay. Cryptocurrencies are traded with no broker and tracked on digital ledgers. Dramatic changes in the value of the cryptocurrency attract the investors’ attention. Some of the have a one-day trading strategy, other investors construct crypto portfolio for a long time periods. The object of this study is value of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin on short time periods and long time periods. The subject of the study is the statistical analysis methods to assess the different cryptocurrencies investment efficiency on the different time periods. The aim of the study is to find out what cryptocurrency strategy is better to use for investors. The analysis is carried out on randomly generated periods for 8 samples cryptocurrencies value. The result of the study allows to state that investor does not need to construct crypto portfolio based on its profitability. An effective strategy is to invest money for long time periods in any cryptocurrencies whose utilities meet the investor’s requirements.