Перегляд за Автор "Hennadii Mazur"
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- ДокументAssessing the probability of bankruptcy when investing in cryptocurrency(Суми: ТОВ «Консалтингова видавнича компанія «Перспективи бізнесу», 2022-09-14) Serhii Kozlovskyi; aroslav Petrunenko; Hennadii Mazur; Vira Butenko; Natalya IvanyutaThe cryptocurrency market is not regulated, people and companies wishing to invest in cryptocurrency do not have the same protection as when investing in other assets. In the absence of information and regulatory laws, investors should decide if cryptocurrencies make sense for their financial goals and what kind of investment strategy to choose not to go bankrupt. The aim of the study is to determine the probability of “tail events” and to assess in this way the probability of bankruptcy when investing in cryptocurrency using the Monte Carlo method. The analysis is carried out on the period from September 1, 2014 up to July 1, 2022. Despite the fact that today there are more than 10,000 types of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin was chosen to assess the probability of bankruptcy. The reason is that Bitcoin is the world’s first decentralized cryptocurrency and its data is stored in a long-term history, which allows testing a long-term investment strategy. Besides, Bitcoin has not gone through a period of persistent inflation that makes the result of testing a short-term investment strategy more reliable. To date, there are around 25 million Bitcoin holders, representing 42.2% of the crypto market. Almost all cryptocurrencies have been proven to follow Bitcoin. The probability of bankruptcy for a short-term cryptocurrency investment strategy is about 17%-23%. For a long-term cryptocurrency investment strategy, the probability of bankruptcy fluctuates from 13% to 16%. Contrary to popular belief, investors looking to avoid bankruptcy should prefer a long-term strategy. The best way for cryptocurrency investors to protect themselves from bankruptcy is to alternate long and short investment periods.
- ДокументForecasting the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of War and European integration(Болгарія: Сільськогосподарська академія, 2023) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Tetiana Kulinich; Hennadii Mazur; Natalia Varshavska; Mariia Lushchyk; Illya Khadzhynov; Volodymyr KozlovskyiThe war in Ukraine, since 24 February 2022, the processes of integration of Ukraine into the European Union in June 2022, the presence of powerful competitors in the European markets encourage the formation of a set of measures with the distinction of tools to ensure the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of the state. The necessity of ensuring the competitiveness of Ukraine’s agrarian sector on the basis of determining the competitive advantages dictate the urgency of scientific search for new methods, forms, tools for its enhancement, which will further promote the market relations in Ukraine and will have a direct impact on the well-being of the population. The aim of the work is to develop an innovative economic-mathematical model for assessing and fore-casting the level of competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine, based on fuzzy sets in the conditions of war and European integration. The object of the research is the process of ensuring the competitiveness of the Ukrainian agrarian sector. The subject of the research is methodological aspects of economic and mathematical modeling of the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of war and European integration. The methodology of the study is based on the principles and mathematical provisions of fuzzy sets, which allows to use both qualitative and quantitative indicators of influence on the process under study. As a result of the research, based on fuzzy set theory, which allows taking into account both quantitative and qualitative factors of influence on the level of competitiveness, an innovative economic-mathematical model of valuation and forecasting of the level of competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine has been developed. The classification of factors influencing the level of agrarian sector competitiveness has been formed. The forecast (before the war and after the war), until 2026, of the level of competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine has been made, which will allow formulating a strategy of development of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of war and European integration.
- ДокументFORMATION OF THE MODEL OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY(2023-11-04) Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi; Serhii Kozlovskyi; Yurii Popovskyi; Svitlana Lutkovska; Vira Butenko; Taras Popovskyi; Hennadii Mazur; Andrii KozlovskyiThe article considers the use of sustainable energy as a potentially effective alternative energy source capable of replacing traditional natural fuels. The aim of the research is to develop a complex model of sustainable economic development able to promote introducing and expanding sustainable power engineering as potential alternative energy source, providing sustainable economic development, energy efficiency and reducing damages to the environment. The hypothesis lies in introduction of a model for sustainable economic development due to expansion of renewable energy which will result in economic growth, rise in energy efficacy and reducing hazards to the environment. A comparative analysis of costs and revenues of various types for using energy sources was carried out to estimate the economic efficiency and feasibility of renewable energy. The data analysis toolkit uses MS Power BI software, in which the data model was created. The conducted regression analysis provided valuable nu-merical and practical results on formation of the model of sustainable economic development of renewable power engineering. The research is based on the analysis of the impact “share of energy” on the level of electric energy import and CO₂ emissions. It is recommended to intensify efforts to develop renewable energy as a key direction for sustainable economic development to ensure energy security, reduce negative environmental impact and achieve global sustainable development goals.
- ДокументRelationship between net Relationship between net migration and economic tion and economic development of European opment of European countries: Empirical conclusions(Суми: ТОВ «Перспективи бізнесу», 2024-03-18) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Tetiana Kulinich; Ihor Vechirko; Ruslan Lavrov; Ivan Zayukov; Hennadii MazurThe study aims to investigate the relationships between the volume of net migration and the economic development of individual European countries, which will make it possible to forecast the level of GDP and strengthen their migration policy. Correlation-regression analysis was used based on statistical data from Eurostat and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period 2014−2021 for selected European countries (the EU-27 member states, Switzerland, and Ukraine). The correlation-regression analysis showed a relationship between the volume of net migration and the level of GDP. The linear correlation equations forecasted the value of the GDP level depending on the influence of a single factor – the volume of net migration. The attention is focused on the importance of migration, which ensures economic growth for Poland. It is attractive due to a simpler mechanism for moving immigrants than in other EU-27 countries, ease of language learning and easier adaptation, territorial proximity, and a higher standard of living compared to neighboring countries that were part of the Soviet Union. Thus, an increase in net migration to Poland by 1% will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 1.43 million euros. Due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, net migration from Ukraine to Poland has increased significantly, potentially increasing Poland’s GDP in 2023 by 0.08% or 529.54 million euros
- ДокументTHE INFLUENCE OF THE NET FINANCIAL RESULT OF THE ACTIVITIES OF THE STATE ENTERPRISES OF UKRAINE ON THE EFFICIENCY OF THE USE OF THEIR CAPITAL IN THE CORPORATE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM(Чехія: ENIGMA CORPORATION, 2024) Ivan Zayukov; Hennadii Mazur; Serhii Kozlovskyi; Ruslan Lavrov; Matsyuk VladyslavIncreasing the efficiency of corporate management of state-owned enterprises in the current military conditions of Ukraine is an important factor in ensuring an increase in their profitability. The increase in the rate of return on equity is a guarantee of further socio-economic development of state-owned enterprises. The purpose of the article is to study the relationship between the net financial results of the activities of state-owned enterprises and the profitability of their capital as an important task of improving the efficiency of corporate management of state-owned enterprises of Ukraine. Systematization of the main data on the state companies of Ukraine, which were selected for analysis, was carried out, in particular: LLC "Gas supply company "Naftogaz of Ukraine"; National Energy Company "Ukrenergo"; State enterprise "National Atomic Energy Generating Company "Energoatom"; Public joint-stock company "Ukrhydroenergo"; Boryspil International Airport. An analysis of the statistical data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for the years 2014−2019 of the net financial result of the activities of state-owned enterprises of Ukraine and the profitability of their capital was carried out. A correlation-regression analysis was conducted to determine the influence of the net financial results of the activities of state-owned enterprises on the profitability of their capital. It was found that there is a reliable positive relationship between the net financial result of the activity of state-owned enterprises of Ukraine and the profitability of their capital. The results obtained during the correlation-regression analysis for the considered state enterprises are summarized. A model of corporate management of state-owned enterprises is proposed. The model presents management subjects (the state, shareholders, external investors, staff, etc.). The main four blocks that make it possible to ensure effective corporate management are presented: the supervisory board, the board, strategic planning, ownership policy.