Перегляд за Автор "RODION POLIAKOV"

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    Neurolinguistic Exchange Rate Forecasting at War as a Bankruptcy Economic Protection Mechanism
    (Подгориця : НВУ «ELIT – Економічна лабораторія досліджень перехідного періоду», 2024-01-15) Serhii Kozlovskyi; RODION POLIAKOV
    The problem of forecasting financial indicators and exchange rates refers to one of the most difficult and topical economic and financial tasks. The interest and complexity of forecasting the currency exchange rate in Ukraine has increased manifold since the beginning February 24, 2022 of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. Forecasting the exchange rate in Ukraine has become extremely important primarily for the existence of the national economy in military conditions and prevention of bankruptcy of enterprises. The object of research is the average exchange rate of the US dollar to the Ukrainian hryvnia. The subject of the research are the instrumental and economicmathematical methods of artificial intelligence, the theory of fuzzy sets, genetic algorithms, which enable a verified forecast of the exchange rate in Ukraine for a period of one year. The hypothesis of the study is the assumption that the exchange rate of the Ukrainian currency under the war conditions will fall 2-7 times within 1 year. The purpose of the research is to forecast the currency exchange rate in Ukraine in the conditions of war using methods of neurolinguistic modeling, based on a linguistic description of the factors influencing the exchange rate, as well as to obtain linguistic and quantitative forecast values to reduce the risks of bankruptcy. 16 factors of influencing the currency exchange rate in Ukraine grouped into economic, political, military factors have been identified and also described in a linguistic form. A neurolinguistic economic-mathematical model of forecasting the currency exchange rate in Ukraine was developed and a forecast of this indicator for 1 year was made. The results of the study suggest that the currency exchange rate in Ukraine can decrease more than twice within 1 year which can create a risk for the bankruptcy of enterprises. The dependence of the currency exchange rate of Ukraine on the state of the economy and the war was also plotted.