Перегляд за Автор "Polovyi, Mykola"
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- ДокументA forecast of international migration flows into EU countries until 2050(Poznan: PressTo Uniwersitet im. Adama Mickievicza, 2018) Polovyi, MykolaThe subject of this paper is international migration into EU countries. The research objective is a quantitative estimation of the volume of international migration flows into European countries and their close neighbors until 2050. The forecast of international migration flows is based on the author’s own model of global international migration. The model is based on a synergetic approach and assumptions that the level of migration is determined first of all by the number of existing migrants from that country. The data used for the forecast is UN data on migration flows in 1990–2015, and the UN’s predictions regarding changes in population between now and 2050. The forecast is based on the medium scenario of demographic development offered by the UN. Countries with a current population of more than 5 million are taken into consideration as potential sources of immigration. The predicted values of the total number of international migration flows to each of the EU and neighboring countries for each five-year period until 2050 are determined. The predicted migration flows from EU countries are also determined. It is concluded that the forecasts allow us to claim that the problem of migration will continue for EU countries. However, the essence of this problem is not the prevention of excess migration, but attracting migrants to the countries of the ‘second Europe.’
- ДокументForecasting the dynamics of the potential of international migrations by 2050(Polski Przegląd Migracyjny (The Polish Migration Review), 2017) Polovyi, MykolaThe text is an attempt to estimate changes in the potential sources and targets of international migration (countries with a modern population quantity of more than 5 million was taken into account) in accordance with the prognoses of change of population quantity until 2050. The the author attempted to estimate the change in the “difference of potentials of an available population by countries”. The research leans on three scenarios of demographic development as offered by the UN – low, medium and high. To the best of the author’s knowledge, the model created by the author is one of the few models of global international migration based on a synergistic approach. With the help of the created model in the course of consistent iterations, matrices were developed of paired indexes of the mutual attractiveness of countries for migrants for every fifth year from 2020 to 2050. Based on these matrices and in accordance with the UN’s proposed scenarios of demographic development, three scenarios were constructed for forecasting trends and volumes of legal migration for every five years to 2050 among all countries taken into consideration. The predicted values were determined for the total number of international migrants in each of the countries by 2050. The conclusion is that there are stable migration directions which are not limited to the direction of “South-North”. It was also determined that there is no fundamental the difference in the forecasted migration directions according to each of the UN scenarios. The results of the forecasting and some supplementary materials to this article are available online.
- ДокументIMPLEMENTATION OF J. DAVIES' MODIFIED MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF SHORT-TERM PROTEST ACTIVITY(Вінниця: ДонНУ імені Василя Стуса "Політичне життя", 2016) Polovyi, Mykola; Gadzhyieva, DilaraThe paper assesses suitability of J. Davies’ model for simulation of short-term protest activity. The authors make an attempt to show proximity of J. Davies’ model and synergetic paradigm of the order parameter. The authors' modification of J. Davies’ model was given to display dissipative formation of short-term protest activity. Special role of current expectations and beliefs of population in formation of a protest was noted. In proposed modification of J. Davies’ model we offer to consider ratio of negative expectations and related political reality. The model is verified by materials of Ukrainian political process of the last two decades. In this article we show fundamental consistency between retro-prediction of the model and real course of protest activity processes in Ukraine.
- ДокументLong-term demographic factor of political unrest in contemporary states(Bucharest, Romania: International Political Science Conference, 2019-06) Polovyi, MykolaThe paper is an attempt to estimate the influence of long-term structural-demographic factors on political stability in contemporary transitive states such as Ukraine. Interpretation of this synergetic factor is lean on the modified "structurally-demographic" approach of A.Korotayev and J.Goldstone. The synergetic order parameter, which determines the unrest of the political process in modern transitive states is defined. It is proposed to consider the rate of annual growth in the number of young people mostly with higher or incomplete higher education in large and medium cities as such parameter. The actual index of this order parameter for the Ukrainian political process of the first and second decade of the twenty-first century should be considered an annual growth rate of urban youth age range 21 - 25 years. It is stated that the background of its influence is a rapid annual increase in coverage of the population by means of effective communication not mediated by government intervention (mobile communications, and especially cable and mobile Internet). The structure of the author’s model of political instability in Ukraine, based on the abovementioned grounds, is described. The model reflects the period from 1989 and provides the possibility to give the prognosis of a threat to political stability till 2039. An algorithm for computing the function of political unrest depends on the rate of growth of urban youth were built in such a way that as a result a conditional integer status indicator of political stability was obtained. The author’s forecast of political instability in Ukraine until 2039 is described.
- ДокументMODERN INFORMATION MODELS OF THE NATIONAL INTERESTS’ PROTECTION POLICY OF THE WORLD COUNTRIES(Tbilisi: by Europe Our House, 2018) Bondarenko, Sergii; Nagornyak, Tetyana; Polovyi, MykolaThe paper generalized experience of formation and implementation of the the informational direction of policy on protecting national interests of the states and supranational organizations. Authors formed two models – subsidiary (US, UK, EU, and NATO) and vertical (Russia) on the basis of generalization. A transitional model of the development and implementation of the informational direction of policy on protecting national interests in the conditions of nonlinear processes was proposed. The model reflects the modern transformation of Ukraine and the transition from a vertical to a subsidiary model.
- ДокументNeo-militant Democracies in Post-communist Member States of the European Union(London and New York: Routledge Taylor & Francis Group, 2022) Polovyi, Mykola...the monograph is recommended as a sound contribution to case studies of contemporary political regimes in the post-communist EU countries. It provides a common methodological foundation for future research on young democracies and comparative studies. Professionals in political theory applied politics, and simulations of political processes will benefit from familiarizing themselves with the monograph's grounded methodology and cases.
- ДокументSYNERGETIC ANALYSIS OF TRANSITIONAL CHANGES DURING NATIONAL LIBERATION STRUGGLE OF 1917-1921 IN UKRAINE(Czech Republic, Praha: BEROSTAV DRUŽSTVO, 2016) Gadzhyieva, Dilara; Polovyi, MykolaThis article aims to analyze the Ukrainian political process in times of national liberation struggle of 1917 ‐ 1921 from the point of synergetic approach. Based on the concepts of such prominent scholars as H. Haken, I. Prigogine, O. Dobrocheev, P. Turchyn and A. Korotayev and by means of synergetic methodology the authors distinguished two levels of analysis of the problem: on macrolevel, in terms of the whole Russian Empire, the bifurcation point lasted for more than 4 years up to 1921; on the microlevel, within Ukraine, there were several obvious periods of deterministic influence and, accordingly, several points of bifurcation observed in October‐ November 1917, April 1918, November‐December 1918, August‐September 1919. Operating by the concept of power density the authors expressed the hypothesis that a drastic reduction in duration of periods of deterministic development and frequent occurrence of bifurcation points were caused by the "crushing" of the total political entity.