Перегляд за Автор "Ivan Zayukov"

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    Assessment of the Association Between Industrial Production Indicators and Business Expectations: Implications for Sustainable Economic Development
    (Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland, 2025-11-11) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi; Volodymyr Kozlovskyi; Anna Sabat; Tomasz Lechowicz; Ivan Zayukov; Larysa Oliinyk
    Economic development and its sustainability are influenced not only by material, human, financial, and intellectual factors, but also by psychological factors. In particular, the levels of business expectations, trust, and confidence significantly affect the resilience of the economy, especially in crucial sectors such as industry and, more specifically, industrial production. Based on political, economic, social, and legal stability, businesses are likely to assess their opportunities more optimistically and realistically. This, in turn, enables them to look confidently toward the future and provides a foundation for investing in further development. Conversely, a decline in business expectations and confidence can slow socio-economic development, potentially leading to recession or depression. The purpose of the article is to identify the association between business confidence (Impact of the Business Confidence Indicator, IBCI) and the level of industrial production (Industrial Production Index, IPI), as a crucial aspect of ensuring sustainable economic development. A correlation–regression analysis conducted using Ukraine as a case study—a country candidate for EU accession—and statistical data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) for the period from 1 February 2022 to 1 September 2024 demonstrated that there is a stable, positive, and strong relationship between IBCI and IPI levels (r = 0.7; D = 0.49). The constructed linear correlation model indicates that, with other factors held constant, a one-percentage-point increase in positive business expectations may lead to a 2.23-point rise in the industrial production activity of enterprises in Ukraine’s manufacturing sector. Furthermore, approximately 49.0% of the variation in industrial production levels is likely explained by changes in business expectations. Verification of the constructed regression equation and assessment of its parameters indicate that it is statistically reliable and consistent with real economic processes. Specifically, the Fisher coefficient (F = 5.30) exceeds the critical (tabular) value (Ft = 2.04), with Se = 0.45 and C_95% = 1.96; the causality test based on the Granger methodology revealed the presence of a causal relationship, indicating that the IBCI influences the IPI. The obtained statistical results for the applied models and tests are as follows: MDF (p < 0.05), KPSS (p > 0.10), Durbin–Watson ≈ 2.0, Breusch–Godfrey (p = 0.32), White (p = 0.41), ARCH (p = 0.27), and SER (p = 0.36). The constructed correlation–regression equation also allowed forecasting based on trend line modeling—how IPI levels will change depending on business confidence. According to the forecast, the IPI in Ukraine at the beginning of 2030 is expected to increase by 63.48 percentage points compared to the beginning of 2024, reaching 153.6%.
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    Документ
    Relationship between net Relationship between net migration and economic tion and economic development of European opment of European countries: Empirical conclusions
    (Суми: ТОВ «Перспективи бізнесу», 2024-03-18) Serhii Kozlovskyi; Tetiana Kulinich; Ihor Vechirko; Ruslan Lavrov; Ivan Zayukov; Hennadii Mazur
    The study aims to investigate the relationships between the volume of net migration and the economic development of individual European countries, which will make it possible to forecast the level of GDP and strengthen their migration policy. Correlation-regression analysis was used based on statistical data from Eurostat and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period 2014−2021 for selected European countries (the EU-27 member states, Switzerland, and Ukraine). The correlation-regression analysis showed a relationship between the volume of net migration and the level of GDP. The linear correlation equations forecasted the value of the GDP level depending on the influence of a single factor – the volume of net migration. The attention is focused on the importance of migration, which ensures economic growth for Poland. It is attractive due to a simpler mechanism for moving immigrants than in other EU-27 countries, ease of language learning and easier adaptation, territorial proximity, and a higher standard of living compared to neighboring countries that were part of the Soviet Union. Thus, an increase in net migration to Poland by 1% will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 1.43 million euros. Due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, net migration from Ukraine to Poland has increased significantly, potentially increasing Poland’s GDP in 2023 by 0.08% or 529.54 million euros
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    THE INFLUENCE OF THE NET FINANCIAL RESULT OF THE ACTIVITIES OF THE STATE ENTERPRISES OF UKRAINE ON THE EFFICIENCY OF THE USE OF THEIR CAPITAL IN THE CORPORATE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
    (Чехія: ENIGMA CORPORATION, 2024) Ivan Zayukov; Hennadii Mazur; Serhii Kozlovskyi; Ruslan Lavrov; Matsyuk Vladyslav
    Increasing the efficiency of corporate management of state-owned enterprises in the current military conditions of Ukraine is an important factor in ensuring an increase in their profitability. The increase in the rate of return on equity is a guarantee of further socio-economic development of state-owned enterprises. The purpose of the article is to study the relationship between the net financial results of the activities of state-owned enterprises and the profitability of their capital as an important task of improving the efficiency of corporate management of state-owned enterprises of Ukraine. Systematization of the main data on the state companies of Ukraine, which were selected for analysis, was carried out, in particular: LLC "Gas supply company "Naftogaz of Ukraine"; National Energy Company "Ukrenergo"; State enterprise "National Atomic Energy Generating Company "Energoatom"; Public joint-stock company "Ukrhydroenergo"; Boryspil International Airport. An analysis of the statistical data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for the years 2014−2019 of the net financial result of the activities of state-owned enterprises of Ukraine and the profitability of their capital was carried out. A correlation-regression analysis was conducted to determine the influence of the net financial results of the activities of state-owned enterprises on the profitability of their capital. It was found that there is a reliable positive relationship between the net financial result of the activity of state-owned enterprises of Ukraine and the profitability of their capital. The results obtained during the correlation-regression analysis for the considered state enterprises are summarized. A model of corporate management of state-owned enterprises is proposed. The model presents management subjects (the state, shareholders, external investors, staff, etc.). The main four blocks that make it possible to ensure effective corporate management are presented: the supervisory board, the board, strategic planning, ownership policy.